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Guonan Ma

Dr Guonan Ma was a visiting research fellow at Bruegel until 2016. Prior to this, he was a senior economist at the Representative Office for Asia and the Pacific of the Bank for International Settlements (BIS) for thirteen years. Before joining the BIS in 2001, he worked as a chief North Asia economist for ten years at various investment banks, including Merrill Lynch, Salomon Smith Barney and Bankers Trust.

Prior to his investment bank career, he was a lecturer of economics and research fellow at the Australian National University for four years following the completion of his Ph.D. in economics at the University of Pittsburgh (1990). Dr Ma was born in China where he obtained his undergraduate degree at Beijing University (1982). Guonan Ma has many publications on the Asian and Chinese economies and financial markets over the years.

Declaration of interests 2015

Declaration of interests 2016

Contact information

[email protected]

Content related to Guonan Ma

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Policy Contribution

A compelling case for Chinese monetary easing

In the midst of the heated monetary policy debate, the People’s Bank of China (PBC) since mid-2014 has no doubt started loosening its monetary policy, initially tentatively and later more forcefully. Is such a policy shift warranted and desirable?

By: Guonan Ma Topic: Global economy and trade Date: April 27, 2015
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Blog Post

The aging dollar peg: time for the PBC to bid it farewell

The Chinese renminbi (RMB) depreciated 2.5 percent against the US dollar in 2014. This was the first depreciation since 2005, when Beijing timidly started loosening its tight dollar peg. Recently, the RMB has repeatedly tested the weak side of its daily trading band, despite attempts by the People’s Bank of China (PBC) to signal its preference for a steadier bilateral RMB-USD rate via its daily fixing (Figure 1, left panel). What has led to the changing fortunes of the RMB? What lies ahead for the currency in 2015?

By: Guonan Ma Topic: Global economy and trade Date: February 19, 2015
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Blog Post

Backward guidance, Chinese style

Since early 2014, the People’s Bank of China (PBC), the Chinese central bank, has deployed multiple policy tools to loosen its monetary policy stance, including cutting its benchmark bank interest rates, relaxing mortgage terms, tinkering with the outdated loan-deposit ratio rule, selectively cutting some reserve requirements and injecting liquidity into the banking system via various new facilities.

By: Guonan Ma Topic: Global economy and trade Date: January 15, 2015
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Opinion

Has a stronger renminbi contributed to financial tightening?

The People’s Bank of China (PBC), the Chinese central bank, finally cut its benchmark interest rates on 21 November, after easing its policy in a shadow-boxing fashion for more than six months. This is a vindication of our strong and non-consensus view that China ought to ease its monetary policy. There is more Chinese easing to come, in my view.

By: Guonan Ma Topic: Global economy and trade Date: December 17, 2014
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Blog Post

How tight is China’s monetary policy?

There have been definite signs of monetary loosening in China in recent weeks. Nevertheless, for almost a year, the debate continues to rage over whether the People’s Bank of China (PBC) should loosen its monetary policy more meaningfully in a situation of weakening domestic demand. Has China’s monetary policy stance been too restrictive lately? If so, how should the PBC ease monetary policy?

By: Guonan Ma Topic: Global economy and trade Date: October 16, 2014
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Blog Post

How loose is China’s monetary policy?

On the contrary, among the major central banks, the PBC appears to have tightened the most since the global financial crisis, on the basis of both ex-post real policy rate and real effective exchange rate.

By: Guonan Ma Topic: Global economy and trade Date: October 16, 2014
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Opinion

China gingerly taking the capital account liberalisation path

Since China is the number one trading nation, the second largest economy and a large net creditor, the world has a huge stake in how China manages its tricky transition from a state of binding capital controls to one of closer integration with the global financial market and system.

By: Guonan Ma Topic: Global economy and trade Date: October 16, 2014
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Blog Post

China's financial liberalisation: interest rate deregulation or currency flexibility first?

Part I discusses three institutional factors favouring a strategy of greater currency flexibility ahead of fuller domestic interest rate liberalisation. Part II (coming later this week) explores three cyclical factors that would tend to favour the same strategy.

By: Guonan Ma Topic: Banking and capital markets, Global economy and trade Date: October 16, 2014
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Working Paper

Developing an underlying inflation gauge for China

This paper develops a new underlying inflation gauge (UIG) for China which differentiates between trend and noise, is available daily and uses a broad set of variables that potentially influence inflation. Its construction follows the works at other major central banks, adopts the methodology of a dynamic factor model that extracts the lower frequency components as developed by Forni et al (2000) and draws on the experience of the People’s Bank of China in modelling inflation.

By: Marlene Amstad, Ye Huan and Guonan Ma Topic: Global economy and trade Date: October 8, 2014
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Blog Post

A compelling case for Chinese monetary easing

A successful Chinese economy needs both structural reforms on the supply side to enhance potential growth, and a nimble monetary policy to fully exploit such potential on the demand side. Guonan Ma discusses six reasons why China ought to ease its monetary policy stance. 

By: Guonan Ma Topic: Banking and capital markets, Global economy and trade Date: October 8, 2014
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Blog Post

Tweaking China’s loan-deposit ratio rule

In the wake of the latest easing of Chinese monetary policy, the CBRC, China’s banking regulator, has recently modified a few details of how it calculates the bank loan/deposit ratio, which is currently capped at 75 percent by the country’s banking law.

By: Guonan Ma Topic: Global economy and trade Date: September 30, 2014
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Blog Post

Are financial conditions in China too lax or too stringent?

The pronounced slowdown in China’s GDP growth in recent years has raised the important question of what might be its principal causes.

By: Guonan Ma Topic: Global economy and trade Date: August 5, 2014

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