Working Paper
This paper presents unprecedented exchange rate forecasting results based upon a new model which approximates the gap between the fundamental equilibrium exchange rate and the actual exchange rate with the long-maturity forward exchange rate.
Blog Post
A textbook condition of international finance breaks down. Economic research identifies the interplay between divergent monetary policies and new financial regulation as the source of the puzzle, and generates concerns about unintended consequences for financing conditions and financial stability.
Blog Post
Have prices moved in the direction of correcting real exchange rate misalignments everywhere in the euro area in recent years? Not between the largest euro-area economies, i.e. France, Germany and Italy, says evidence from the Big Mac index. However, latest trends may be working in the right direction in these countries too.
Blog Post
The reduced references in the speeches of the President and Vice-president of the ECB to exchange rate changes in assessing inflation developments correspond to a decreased pass-through from the exchange rate to inflation. So, as it should be, words have followed facts
Blog Post
This blog post looks at how the approach of the ECB to inflation has changed over the years. It shows the ECB has moved, over the years, from a small towards a large country approach, giving more weight to the improving employment conditions than to the appreciating exchange rate in deciding its monetary policy moves.
Opinion
Volatility offers an opportunity for the territory to rethink its strategy. With the economy now more synchronised with China than ever before, the dollar peg may no longer provide an accurate reflection of the real value of the Hong Kong dollar.
Blog Post
What’s at stake: the literature on monetary policy spillovers is abundant of studies investigating the impact of the US Federal Reserve’s monetary policy announcements and actions on emerging market economies. More recently, economists have been investigating the effect of the ECB’s credit easing as well.
Blog Post
In the decades before Italy joined the Euro, the Lira was devalued many times relative to the Deutschmark. Were these re-alignments accompanied by long term improvements on the labour market? The data suggests this was not the case.
Blog Post
Misalignments of real exchange rates continue to be the most visible and painful symptom of asymmetric shocks within the Eurozone. An important factor behind such misalignment is the difference in national wage formation and bargaining systems, especially between core and periphery members. This column argues that all members need to have institutions that ensure wage developments are in line with productivity developments. This would eliminate an important source of asymmetric behaviour and reduce resistance to EZ-wide fiscal mechanisms capable of absorbing asymmetric shocks.
Blog Post
Several countries experiencing conflict have been able to maintain a stable nominal exchange rate and thereby their real exchange rates were either stable or even increased due to high inflation. In contrast, nominal exchange rates have recently crashed in Syria, Ukraine and Russia, but high inflation has partially or fully counteracted its impact on the real exchange rate.
Blog Post
In the second half of 2014 and early 2015, international oil prices approximately halved. What have been the consequences of this sharp decline on net oil exporters, and what have been their policy responses?
Blog Post
In this follow-up, I argue that on top of these structural and institutional factors, there are also three short-term cyclical considerations in favour of a strategy of accelerating currency flexibility ahead of full interest rate liberalisation in China.
