Blog Post
Debt-to-GDP ratios should continue to fall in euro-area countries despite rising interest rates, though after 2023 the situation might vary across countries.
External Publication
The ECB should design a specific tool that will accompany interest rate hikes to neutralise the risk of fragmentation directly for countries facing it, staying within the bounds of the EU treaties and ensuring political legitimacy. We also advocate structural changes to the ECB’s collateral framework to avoid unnecessary uncertainty surrounding the safe asset status of European sovereign bonds.
Blog Post
Whether the dynamism of European venture capital of the past two years can be sustained and kick start a credible alternative to bank finance in the European Union remains to be seen.
Blog Post
The lowest income households are suffering disproportionally from the current inflation increase, with rising energy prices the main culprit.
Working Paper
An analysis of the incentive effects of COVID certificates on vaccine uptake, health outcomes and the economy.
Blog Post
As COVID-19 cases surge, the choice of restrictions, and the details of their implementation, can have a major influence on the degree to which business is impacted.
Blog Post
The pandemic has increased the net lending position of the German corporate sector. By incentivising private investment, policymakers could trigger a virtuous cycle of increasing wages, decreasing corporate net lending, which would eventually lead to a reduction of the economy-wide current account surplus.
Blog Post
COVID-19 has reinforced traditional vaccine production patterns, but the global vaccine trade has changed considerably.
Blog Post
European countries must do more to tackle the vaccine uptake gap. Vaccination data should be published at the maximum granularity level so researchers and local decision-makers can monitor progress.
Blog Post
Negative rate cuts are not that different from ‘standard’ rate cuts. Like them, they reduce banks’ margins, but this effect does not appear to be amplified below 0%.
Policy Contribution
The European Union’s capital markets remain very underdeveloped compared to the United States. The market for equity, as measured as the size of the total market capitalisation of listed domestic firms relative to GDP, is much larger in the US and in Japan than in Europe.
Blog Post
COVID-19 has complicated inflation measurement. Policymakers need to take this into account and should look at alternative measures of inflation to understand what is actually happening in the economy.