Download publication

External Publication

Monetary policy in the time of COVID-19, or how uncertainty is here to stay

The COVID-19 crisis has compounded the uncertainty that has come to characterise the European economy. We explore how this uncertainty manifests itself in terms of ECB decision-making and the long-run challenges the ECB faces.

By: and Date: November 12, 2020 Topic: European Parliament

This paper was prepared for the European Parliament’s Requested by the ECON committee. The original paper is available on the European Parliament’s webpage, as part of a series of papers on “Effects of
Pandemic-Induced
Uncertainty on
Monetary Policy” (here). Copyright remains with the European Parliament at all times.

 

The COVID-19 crisis has compounded the uncertainty that has
come to characterise the European economy. We explore how
this uncertainty manifests itself in terms of ECB decision-making
and the long-run challenges the ECB faces. Confidence in ECB
actions will come from the contingency scenarios it considers
and communicates on, and from the adoption of potential
policies for a wide range of such scenarios. Greater clarity around
the ECB’s inflation target and surrounding tolerance bands
would also be beneficial.

This document was provided by the Policy Department for
Economic, Scientific and Quality of Life Policies at the request of
the Committee on Economic and Monetary Affairs (ECON) ahead
of the Monetary Dialogue with the ECB President on 19
November 2020.

Read article Download PDF More on this topic
 

Policy Contribution

An analysis of central bank decision-making

An earlier version of this paper was presented at ‘The MPC at 25’, a conference organised by the United Kingdom’s National Institute of Economic and Social Research, in London, 30 March 2022 The process by which central banks take decisions has evolved over the years, with a tendency towards independence and decisions taken by committees […]

By: Maria Demertzis, Catarina Martins and Nicola Viegi Topic: Banking and capital markets Date: July 11, 2022
Read article More on this topic More by this author
 

Opinion

Central banks have been too slow in responding to higher inflation

Tackling inflation requires both monetary and fiscal policy tightening. It should be done quickly to avoid building up inflationary inertia and stagflation

By: Marek Dabrowski Topic: Macroeconomic policy Date: July 6, 2022
Read article More on this topic More by this author
 

Blog Post

The implications for public debt of high inflation and monetary tightening

Expected increases in interest rates and reductions in real GDP growth rates will result in relatively small increases in public debt-to-GDP ratios, but inflation will reduce debt ratios very substantially

By: Zsolt Darvas Topic: Macroeconomic policy Date: June 29, 2022
Read article More on this topic
 

Blog Post

A new European tool to deal with unjustified rising spreads

The European Central Bank needs a new tool to prevent the current rise in spreads, triggered by monetary policy tightening, from escalating into a new euro-area crisis.

By: Grégory Claeys and Maria Demertzis Topic: Banking and capital markets Date: June 20, 2022
Read article Download PDF More on this topic More by this author
 

Policy Contribution

COVID-19 and the shift to remote work

The post-pandemic new normal is sure to differ both from the pre-pandemic normal and from current arrangements. Hybrid arrangements in which part of the week is spent at the office, and part at home, are likely to become the norm.

By: J. Scott Marcus Topic: Digital economy and innovation Date: June 16, 2022
Read article Download PDF
 

External Publication

European governanceEuropean Parliament

Fragmentation risk in the euro area: no easy way out for the European Central Bank

The ECB should design a specific tool that will accompany interest rate hikes to neutralise the risk of fragmentation directly for countries facing it, staying within the bounds of the EU treaties and ensuring political legitimacy. We also advocate structural changes to the ECB’s collateral framework to avoid unnecessary uncertainty surrounding the safe asset status of European sovereign bonds.

By: Maria Demertzis, Grégory Claeys and Lionel Guetta-Jeanrenaud Topic: European governance, European Parliament, Testimonies Date: June 8, 2022
Read article More by this author
 

Opinion

European governance

Three headaches for the European Central Bank

Even though inflation in the euro area is lower than in the US, three issues make it a lot more difficult for the ECB to control inflation and preserve financial stability. Once again, the limits of EMU architecture are visible and will require a rethink.

By: Maria Demertzis Topic: European governance, Macroeconomic policy Date: May 31, 2022
Read article More on this topic More by this author
 

Podcast

Podcast

Taming inflation?

What are the implications of prolonged inflation?

By: The Sound of Economics Topic: Macroeconomic policy Date: May 25, 2022
Read about event More on this topic
 

Past Event

Past Event

How can we support and restructure firms hit by the COVID-19 crisis?

What are the vulnerabilities and risks in the enterprise sector and how prepared are countries to handle a large-scale restructuring of businesses?

Speakers: Ceyla Pazarbasioglu and Guntram B. Wolff Topic: Macroeconomic policy Location: Bruegel, Rue de la Charité 33, 1210 Brussels Date: May 25, 2022
Read about event More on this topic
 

Past Event

Past Event

How are crises changing central bank doctrines?

How is monetary policy evolving in the face of recent crises? With central banks taking on new roles, how accountable are they to democratic institutions?

Speakers: Maria Demertzis, Benoît Coeuré, Pervenche Berès, Hans-Helmut Kotz and Athanasios Orphanides Topic: Macroeconomic policy Location: Bruegel, Rue de la Charité 33, 1210 Brussels Date: May 11, 2022
Read article More on this topic More by this author
 

Podcast

Podcast

The cost of China's dynamic zero-COVID policy

What does zero-COVID mean for both China and the global economy?

By: The Sound of Economics Topic: Global economy and trade Date: May 11, 2022
Read about event More on this topic
 

Past Event

Past Event

What is in store for Euro area economies?

ECB Executive Board Member Philip Lane discusses the outlook for Euro area economies.

Speakers: Maria Demertzis and Philip Lane Topic: European governance Location: Bruegel, Rue de la Charité 33, 1210 Brussels Date: May 5, 2022
Load more posts