Blog Post
With the end of the Greece support programme, authorities now have scope to focus on the legacy of NPLs and excess private-sector debt. Two wide-ranging schemes are under discussion. They should be assessed in terms of required state support, likely investor appetite for problematic bank assets, and institutional capacity to manage a complex new organisation tasked with debt restructuring.
Blog Post
After rapid increases in unemployment and large wage reductions, Greece’s labour market is showing signs of recovery. Certain sectors of the economy are showing strong employment growth, which could hint at a broader economic recovery.
Blog Post
Greek public debt does not look sustainable if the country has to return to market borrowing at the end of the third bail-out programme, but could be sustainable if preferential ESM funding continues in the long-term. Our advice is to offer hope for Greece in the form of delayed fiscal adjustment toward a target of 2.5% of GDP primary balance and adopt various measures to ease the debt burden, for the benefit of both Greece and its official lenders.
Opinion
Wrapped up in the details of pension reforms and home foreclosure—matters that, no doubt, have important consequences for many— the big picture has faded into the background. It is easy to forget how we got here, and where we are going.
Blog Post
The ECB published the comprehensive assessment of the four major Greek banks (Alpha Bank, Eurobank, National Bank of Greece and Piraeus Bank) yesterday, in line with what was agreed in the third bailout programme for Greece. This exercise will form the basis for the recapitalisation operation foreseen as part of the programme, which will need to be carried out soon.
Blog Post
The Finance Ministry of Greece has published the preliminary budget execution bulletin for September, covering the first 9 months of the year. It reveals a decline in the primary surplus, compared to the over performance recorded in recent months.
Opinion
With the drag from austerity, the debt-deflation spiral, and a weak international economy, where does the projected Greek rebound come from?
Blog Post
Last week, while Europe was anticipating the Greek election, the Greek finance ministry published the latest budget execution bulletin, covering January-August 2015. It shows an unchanged primary surplus, underperforming revenues and what might be the first small steps towards the normalization of the primary expenditure path.
Blog Post
This timeline underpins some of the main events that determined the origins and developments of the euro crisis and highlights our contributions to the debates that the crisis has brought into the academic and policymaking agenda
Blog Post
The Greek finance ministry published last week the latest budget execution bulletin. The state budget primary balance increased significantly during July. Greece recorded a primary surplus of 1.6 billion euros in July, which takes the cumulated primary surplus for the first six months of the year at 3.5 billion euros, against a primary surplus target of 2.99 billion euros. This is the highest monthly value for the primary surplus since August 2014.
Opinion
It was inevitable that Greece would have to make cuts. Yet, if it is ever to pay back its debts, what the country needs most of all is a growth strategy.
Blog Post
The German Finance Minister Wolfgang Schäuble has had enough. Greece, he says, cannot receive debt relief from European creditors because European official creditors are forbidden by European treaties to grant relief. But this cannot be true. Once a loan has been made, any lender exposes himself to a default risk.
