Director’s Cut – The extent of Turkey’s crisis

Although a recent souring of relations with the US has provided the immediate prompt for Turkey’s current crisis, the country’s underlying economic malaise is more deeply rooted.

Headlines have tracked the plummeting value of the lira, while the trust of external investors has been challenged by recent policy decisions. Though Turkey’s case bears some of the hallmarks of a textbook emerging-market meltdown, there are key divergences. Meanwhile, President Erdogan’s previous refutation of IMF policy recommendation does not bode well for potential assistance in the event that Turkey needs help brokering extension agreements with its creditors.

In conversation with Brad Setser, senior fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations, and Jean Pisani-Ferry, mercator senior fellow at Bruegel, Guntram Wolff assesses not only the nature of the crisis in Turkey but how the country might navigate its way back to safer economic waters.

For further reading, consider the recent blog post written by Grégory Claeys and Guntram Wolff discussing how the EU might respond to the currency crisis unfolding in Turkey, including options for the EU to help Turkey in the absence of any agreed IMF assistance programme.