Italy’s economic and political outlook

More than two months after the Italian elections and its turbulent political negotiations, Italy finally has a new government. While this has had a calming effect on the financial markets, Italy’s medium and long term economic outlook is yet to be determined. Bruegel affiliate fellow, Silvia Merler, is joined by Marcello Minenna, PhD lecturer at the London Graduate School and Head of Quants at Consob, and Lorenzo Codogno, LSE visiting professor, to examine the different ways the country can move forward.

Starting off this Sound of Economics, Silvia examines the new government’s policy priorities and discusses the message of uncertainty it sends to financial markets and investors. Indeed, the way in which the government will finance its promises is still uncertain, thus leaving room for unpredictability. In the short and medium term, Lorenzo puts forward the proposal that the new government should tread carefully by introducing policies gradually in order to maintain fiscal stability and discipline.

The three guests address the widely discussed topic of Italy’s euroscepticism. Italy’s relatively stagnant economic growth over multiple generations is seen as a key factor in the country’s present-day skepticism towards the single currency. They agree that, although an ‘Italexit’ is an unlikely scenario, it is nonetheless an important one to consider. Moreover, Marcello points out that Italy’s situation is also a testament to ongoing issues at the European level, requiring a reform of the eurozone’s policies and a tough look at its current functioning.