Blog Post
The summit in Charlevoix left behind a Group of Seven in complete disarray. The authors think that the G-group, in its current formulation, no longer has a reason to exist, and it should be replaced with a more representative group of countries. In this fast-changing world, is the G7 only a relic of the past?
Opinion
In late 2001, I first used the phrase BRIC to discuss the likely rise of Brazil, Russia, India and China as growing shares of the world economy and outlined a number of scenarios in which it seemed pretty inevitable that their share would rise sharply by the end of that decade.
Blog Post
It is probably too early to say with certainty that India will soon take its place as the world's third largest economy, behind China and the United States. But, given that India's investment climate seems to be improving, that moment might not be too far away.
Opinion
When the United Kingdom announced earlier this month that it had agreed to become a founding member of the China-led Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB), most of the headlines focused not on the news itself, but on the friction the decision had caused between the UK and the United States. The White House issued a statement urging the British […]
Opinion
The conventional wisdom about the state of the world economy goes something like this: Since the start of the 2007-2008 financial crisis, the developed world has struggled to recover, with only the United States able to adjust. Emerging countries have fared better, but they, too, have started to flounder lately. In a bleak economic climate, the argument goes, the only winners have been the wealthy, resulting in skyrocketing inequality. That scenario sounds entirely right – until, on closer examination, it turns out to be completely wrong.
Blog Post
At the start of 2015, two familiar features dominate the global economic outlook: continuing turbulence in financial markets and the relative strength of the U.S. recovery. One aspect of America's superior performance, though, has received surprisingly little attention, and that's the marked decline in the country's external deficit.
Blog Post
My hunch for 2015 is that oil prices may continue to drop in the short term; unlike in the past four years, however, they are likely to finish the year higher than they were when it began.
Blog Post
Back at the start of the decade, I made certain assumptions about how the so-called BRIC economies -- Brazil, Russia, India and China -- would perform in the 10 years ahead. Five years on, China is the only one of the four to have either met or possibly slightly surpassed my expectations.
Opinion
Remember this time last year, when it was fashionable to predict that 2014 would be a pretty bad year for emerging markets? Didn't really happen, did it? Now I hear analysts saying the crisis they'd been counting on has only been postponed. It'll happen next year instead. It's possible, but I wouldn't bet on it.
Blog Post
Italy needs growth in nominal GDP to stop its debt burden from rising any further. It also needs to reform its economy, raise its productivity and boost its labour force to do this in a lasting way. But as long as it remains a member of the euro system, there'll be no aid from a devalued currency. This means it needs Germany's help.
Policy Contribution
In an environment of rapid change in global patterns of trade and wealth creation, a new revamped (but highly representative) grouping should be created within the G20, to provide leadership on key economic policy matters. Euro-area members should give up their individual seats in this G7+, allowing room for China and other large emerging economies.