Working Paper
The basic idea is that observable forecasts of macroeconomic variables are transformations of the sets of macroeconomic information, which are so complex as to be unobservable, prevailing when the forecasts are made.
Blog Post
A requirement for gas to be paid for in rubles is a way for Russia to side-step central bank sanctions.
External Publication
Review of 'Monetary policy in times of crisis: a tale of two decades of the European Central Bank' published in the Central Banking.
Working Paper
Attention should be paid to a possible sequence of negative events: if inflation would start to be volatile and money growth remains high, efforts to control inflation could be undermined.
Blog Post
Most economic forecasts predict a return, in the medium-term, to pre-pandemic growth and inflation. Nevertheless, the European Central Bank and fiscal authorities need to be vigilant for signs of the contrary.
External Publication
A discussion of Italian and German macro-economic cultures and performances.
Blog Post
Use of Emergency Liquidity Assistance to prop up euro-area banks needs to be more transparent; available evidence suggests its use has not always been within the rules.
Blog Post
The level of interest of European citizens in the European Union is increasing, but still lags behind EU economic and policy integration.
Working Paper
Everything that increases the interest of European citizens in the EU, independently of whether it has a critical or a supportive character, will serve to move the EU closer to its citizens.
Working Paper
This paper assesses COVID-19 credit-support programmes in five of the largest European economies, and examines how countries have dealt with trade-offs raised by the programmes.