Blog Post
The promissory note deal announced last week by the Irish government and the Central Bank of Ireland will bring benefits to Ireland’s public finances and to the country’s financial stability. As a result, Ireland’s prospects for economic recovery and its chances of emerging from its EU/IMF programme of financial assistance have improved markedly. Indeed, yields on long-term Irish government bonds are now well below those of Italy and Spain.
Blog Post
One way or the other, the approach of European policymakers to the Greek crisis is going to have to change radically over the next few weeks. A series of EU-IMF loans-for-reforms programmes for Greece has proven to be both economically and politically unviable. The Greek economy shrank by more than 6 per cent in the […]
Working Paper
The euro area faces a double challenge: debt overhang and the need for price adjustment. This paper reviews the debt challenges in the household and corporate sectors and maps out some policy options. In particular, we document the increase in private debt prior to the crisis and consider how the corporate and household sectors have adjusted their balance sheets during the crisis.
Working Paper
At a time of symmetric global slowdown, migration cannot contribute as much to absorbing economic shocks as it could if the shock were asymmetric. Early evidence suggests that the crisis has led to a drop in immigration and even net return migration from some countries. This has helped the adjustment of former EU15 host countries […]
Blog Post
In Ireland the crisis is unprecedented: the solution a speedy, once-off adjustment is preferable to the brutality of slowly soaring unemployment. But the public sector did not cause the problem: property did, writes Alan Ahearne. Click here to download this comment. This comment was also published in The Irish Times.
Blog Post
Alan Ahearne believes that the greatest danger facing the Irish economy at the moment is having troubled banks slash lending to businesses and households. He therefore calls for a large injection of fresh capital into banks to stave off rapid deleveraging. But actions that the Irish Government needs to take to rescue the economy from […]
Blog Post
Although the crisis seems to be cooling down, Alan Ahearne warns that the turmoi is not over. The author believes the inevitable sharp slowdown in credit growth resulting from the crisis has all but guaranteed that the global economy faces a deep and prolonged downturn. Click here to download this comment. This comment was […]
Blog Post
Should the budget contain measures to boost the Irish property market? Alan Ahearne says ‘No’, that a fall in property prices and a smaller construction sector are the tough medicine the Irish economy needs while Ronan O’Driscoll, Director of new homes at Savills Hamilton Osborne King, argues ‘Yes’. He believes that by encouraging the sale […]
Blog Post
The charge to the banks for the Irish Government guarantee should be high to compensate for the risk the taxpayer is taking on their behalf, writes Alan Ahearne. The author raises a series of questions and concerns for the future of Irish banks. Click here to download this comment. This comment was also published […]
Blog Post
Alan Ahearne points out the weaknesses in US Treasury Secretary Hank Paulson’s rescue plan for the crumbling of the US financial system. Although timely and greatly needed, the author argues that the $700bn will not suffice. Click here to download this comment. This comment was also published by The Irish Independent.
Blog Post
In the light of the American financial crisis, Alan Ahearne raises the question "could it happen here?" and identifies the differences that make Irish banks less likely to face the same fate as their American counterparts. Click here to download this comment. This comment was also published by The Irish Independent.
Blog Post
Alan Ahearne looks at the Irish housing crisis and identifies ways the Irish Government should prepare for a successful rebalancing of the economy which will require taking courageous decisions. He also gives three elements to consider before introducing schemes aimed at increasing the availability of mortgage credit. Click here to download this comment.